Ethan Mollick Uses Claude Fable and GPT-6 Astra Predictions to Illustrate AI Forecasting Difficulty

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Ethan Mollick shared partial answers from Claude Fable and GPT-6 Astra after asking each, without looking anything up, when the Exponential Time Hypothesis would be solved. Mollick said the responses illustrated “how hard forecasting AI is even for AI.” His prompt asked the models to predict when the hypothesis would be resolved; it did not ask them to solve it.

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Latest development10/27 21:01 (UTC+8)

Ethan Mollick Shows Claude Fable and GPT-6 Astra Forecasting When ETH Will Be Solved Ethan Mollick · X

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10/27

21:01
Ethan Mollick · X
Ethan Mollick Shows Claude Fable and GPT-6 Astra Forecasting When ETH Will Be Solved
This never gets old (& also shows how hard forecasting AI is even for AI) “Hey Claude Fable & GPT-6 Astra, Without looking anything up, when do you think we will solve the Exponential Time Hypothesis?” (I only show part of the answers for space) https://t.co/l615pOos4l

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