Microsoft publishes Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu's bearish AI forecast: just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade
Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade
What happened
Microsoft published Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu's pessimistic forecast: AI will add only about 1.5% to GDP over a decade and replace at most 5% of jobs, far below some AI labs' expectations. He says the bottleneck is human behavior: companies need to reallocate tasks, upskill employees, and reorganize processes, a transition that may take longer than electrification and cannot be solved by larger models. What is missing, he argues, is AI that is easy to deploy and changes how production works.
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