Ethan Mollick compares AI task duration across his book publication milestones

What happened

When Ethan Mollick’s first AI book was published in 2024, the best AI could do 4 minutes of human work with a 50% chance of success. When he submitted the draft of Co-Existence earlier this year, he says it was 17 hours. When it was published two days ago, he says AI could do 17 weeks.

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The story so far

Ethan Mollick said AI’s ability to complete human work had grown from four minutes when his first AI book was published in 2024 to 17 weeks by the publication of Co-Existence in October 2026. He put the intermediate figure at 17 hours when he submitted the Co-Existence draft earlier in 2026. Mollick described the 2024 figure as work the best AI could complete with a 50% chance of success. His post did not attach that success rate to the 17-hour or 17-week figures.