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Ethan Mollick recalls speculation about GPT-4’s lead and the limits of LLMs
What happened
Less than three years ago, GPT-4 was the best model in the world, as it had been for a year, and we were all speculating whether there was some unique secret method that OpenAI had or whether GPT-4 was just as good as LLMs would ever get. (The answer to both questions was "no")
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See the full storyEthan Mollick rejects past speculation about GPT-4’s lead and LLM limitsLess than three years ago, GPT-4 was the best model in the world, as it had been for a year, and we were all speculating whether there was some unique secret method that OpenAI had or whether GPT-4 was just as good as LLMs would ever get.
(The answer to both questions was "no") https://t.co/SXUkpgGEQc
The recent releases of many GPT-3.5 class AIs (Grok, Mixtral, Gemini Pro) are oddly unilluminating about the future of frontier AI It’s been a year & no one has beat GPT-4. Will they? Is there some magic there? Does it indicate a limit to LLMs? Will GPT-4.5 be another huge jump?View the quoted post on X
The story so far
Ethan Mollick said OpenAI had no unique secret method behind GPT-4’s lead and that the model did not represent the limit of what large language models could achieve. He recalled that less than three years ago, GPT-4 had held the position of the world’s best model for a year, prompting speculation about whether OpenAI possessed a special method or whether LLM performance had reached its ceiling. Mollick’s retrospective answer to both questions was “no.”
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