Anthropic tests AI self-replication and projects smaller models could catch up this year

What happened

Baoyu summarizes Anthropic research in which GLM-5.2 alone completed a replication workflow across simulated Android servers, while smaller models failed. The experiment used unauthenticated ADB access and ran GLM-5.2 remotely to deploy Llama3.1-8B, limiting what the results establish about autonomous spread. Anthropic roughly projects that smaller models could match GLM-5.2’s tested capability by year-end based on general capability trends. Researchers also manually distributed Gemma4-26B-A4B across 15 Android TV boxes, achieving 0.39 tokens per second.

Reported by 3 sources

The story so far

Anthropic’s Frontier Red Team used a remotely running GLM-5.2 to deploy Llama3.1-8B across simulated Android devices, but the experiments did not demonstrate a fully autonomous AI worm. In an isolated network of eight GCP nodes running Android 15 emulators, GLM-5.2 reached all eight nodes in four of five trials and seven in the remaining trial. The setup provided unauthenticated Android Debug Bridge access and omitted actual hacking, limiting what it establishes about spreading through real devices. In a separate experiment, researchers manually distributed Gemma4-26B-A4B across 15 Android TV boxes costing about $55 each, achieving 0.39 tokens per second. The Decoder reported that no current model combines the small size and replication capabilities needed for a fully autonomous AI worm. These experiments demonstrated deployment and distributed operation under different conditions, rather than a single model independently spreading and running across consumer devices. Anthropic warned that advances in small models could enable self-replicating malware on poorly secured IoT devices. The reported forecasts differ: Baoyu described a rough projection that smaller models could match GLM-5.2’s tested capability by the end of 2026, and The Decoder reported the same year-end horizon for autonomous replication; Ars Technica quoted Anthropic saying it might become possible by 2027. Ars also reported significant experimental obstacles, tempering Anthropic’s warning that such malware could be difficult to shut down.

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