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OpinionEthan Mollick · XRelayed· @emollick·· 3 days ago

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Artificial Analysis reports a wider open weights model gap on closed benchmarks

Who
Ethan Mollick
What
comments on Artificial Analysis’s closed benchmark results showing open-weight models falling further behind
Quote
Artificial Analysis finally moves to closed benchmarks (goodbye GDPval-AA), and finds that open weights models are falling further behind than they had previously measured.

What happened

Ethan Mollick says Artificial Analysis’s move to closed benchmarks reveals a wider open weights model gap, while urging caution about the findings. Artificial Analysis reports that Kimi K3.1 Pro, whose weights are not yet released, scores 46 in v5, 12 points behind the leader versus a 3-point gap in v4.3. Among models with released weights, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (max) and GLM-5.3 (max) lead at 32, below Claude Haiku 5.5 (max). https://twitter.com/ArtificialAnlys/status/2115265171233120627

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See the full storyKimi K3.1 Pro launches as revised Artificial Analysis index places it ninth
Article

Artificial Analysis finally moves to closed benchmarks (goodbye GDPval-AA), and finds that open weights models are falling further behind than they had previously measured. Take with a grain of salt, but matches the general vibes that we haven't seen a Fable-class open model. https://twitter.com/ArtificialAnlys/status/2115265171233120627

Quoted postArtificial Analysis@ArtificialAnlys
Open weights models fall further behind in v5. The leader, Kimi K3.1 Pro (weights not yet released), scores 46, 12 points behind the leader, compared with a 3-point gap in v4.3. Of models with released weights, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (max) and GLM-5.3 (max) score highest at 32, and Claude Haiku 5.5 (max) outscores all of them. The gap is widest on HLE-Diamond and Terminal-Bench-Science, where Kimi K3.1 Pro scores 37% and 34%, compared with 68% for Claude Opus 5.5 (max) and 63% for GPT-6 Astra (max).
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The story so far

Moonshot AI released Kimi K3.1 Pro through its apps and API, but its weights remain unreleased, and Artificial Analysis’s revised Intelligence Index now places it ninth, behind eight closed models. The Decoder reported that version 5 assigns 60% of the index to private test sets to counter training on known questions. K3.1 Pro scored 46, trailing the leader by 12 points; under version 4.3, it ranked fourth with 55, three points behind Claude Opus 5.5. Ethan Mollick urged caution in interpreting the revised findings. Simon Willison reported Moonshot’s promise to release the weights by November 4, 2026. On Artificial Analysis’s separate Cyber Index, K3.1 Pro scored 64%, leading openly available models for agentic cyber defense while trailing trusted-access GPT-6 Sol (Daybreak Blue, max) at 69%. Artificial Analysis said K3.1 Pro encountered no safety refusals across the index’s three benchmarks. Its cost per task was $2.81, 15% higher than Kimi K3 despite 33% lower per-token prices. Willison reported standard API prices of $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens. Moonshot says the Highspeed variant runs two to three times faster; Willison reported that it costs twice as much, except for input token cache hits, which retain the standard price.

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